Often I’ve heard people say ‘the future is unknowable’. While we can’t know the exact future that will happen, we can interpret ‘the shape of the future’ with varying levels of probability.
Let’s think of it this way – the future is like a room we open the door to.
Sometimes we can see everything in that room. Other times, such as when it’s night, perhaps only the silhouettes of objects will be visible to us until we switch on a light. If the future is the room, then ‘foresight’ is the way we shine light into it.
I’ve seen many workshops where participants began feeling the future was ‘unknowable’, and by the end they had a strong grasp of the fundamental shifts affecting their business and industry, as well as solid action plans to capture their future.
Moving beyond ‘trends’ alone
We all understand the concept of ‘trends’. But are ‘trends’ all there is? Often by the time a trend becomes mainstream, it’s too late to capture it as an opportunity (or deal with it as a threat!).
Consider the iPod. Apple was so successful with the iPod because it was able to spot the converging trends of ‘portable music’ and ‘digital storage’ far before these trends hit the mainstream.
So how can we shine a light on what’s happening out and recognise what will be the next big trend? For that we have to build some muscle into the distinctions we use to map the future.
Enlarging our distinctions of the future
Beyond trends there are many other distinctions we can use to understand the future. Here’s a few I use regularly as well as some examples.
| Distinction | Definition | Example from Health Industry |
| 1. Weak signals | Imprecise early indications about impending impactful events | Development of brain to machine interfaces |
| 2. Emerging issues | Issues of growing importance for which there is accumulating, but not yet prevalent evidence |
Media attention to physiological changes in marine life due to medications ending up in waterways |
| 3. Trends | Demonstration of a consistent pattern over time | Increased use of prescription medication for ‘lifestyle’ purposes |
| 4. Drivers of change | Strong underlying forces and currents of change that are positively or negatively influencing the future | Increasing affluence of developing world stimulating higher demand for medicines |
| 5. Events | Key events significant to change which may have already occurred or have a good probability to occur | A significant legal case where new precedents affect an already established industry |
| 6. Wildcards | Unlikely, massively transformative events |
Discovery of a medicine that prolongs life expectancy to 500 years! |
Give it a try
Here’s a quick 10 minute exercise to map the future for your business.
- Write down the distinctions: On a piece of blank paper write down the distinctions above from left to right (ie. weak signals, emerging issues, etc)
- Map the forces of change: Now one by one think of 10 forces of change affecting your business, and write each one below the distinction that best matches it. For example, ‘increased use of mobile technology’ could be a heading placed under the ‘trend’ area. Something like ‘reading the internet through eye glasses’ (see Google’s Project Glass) might be a ‘weak signal’ or an ’emerging issue’
- Assess your map: When you’ve written everything down, assess your map. Are most of your notes under the ‘trends’ heading? If so, see if you can think of any other forces which might fit the other columns. In doing this, I often find its useful to pick up a newspaper or industry magazine to stimulate ideas.
- Consider the implications: When you’ve finished this consider the implications of these forces upon the future. For example, how would your business need to change if the ‘weak signals’ became ‘trends’? Where would your business place it’s investment to grow knowledge and capability to prepare for the future?
