Many of us in some way or another are responsible for strategy within our organisations. Whether you’re a CEO, a brand manager, a small business owner or an executive coach, chances are at one time or another you will have people ask for your opinion about the future.
The most common form of this is ‘what trends are most important to us’?
From small micro trends right through to megatrends, the way we think about trends is an important part of considering the future.
Although a generalisation, organisations vary in their capacity to watch trends by whether they have formal processes to track observations, as well as the sophistication of the systems they use to collect this data on a regular basis. Using these two aspects as dimensions, we can create a simple 4 quadrant model for ‘trend watching’.
In this model Quadrant 1 is where ‘trend watching’ as a capacity is at an early stage of development, and Quadrant 4 is where it is at its most advanced.
1. Shooting Stars (Informal, Non-Collection)
Trends are shared informally, spontaneously. They’re watched often with wonder or excitement, but quickly forgotten. Often shared on email or in the corridor.
2. Trend Discussions (Formal, Non-Collection)
Organisations book specific sessions to discuss trends (ie. workshops, retreats). Learning is achieved within the group, but not collected or reflected on beyond the event.
3. Trend Experts (Informal, Collection)
Individuals within the organisation gather trends – based on what they read, or meetings they attend – and maintain their own systems of tracking this information over time. These individuals are sought out for their ‘forward-view’.
4. Scanning Functions (Formal, Collection)
The organisation has given responsibility to a group of individuals to scan the future, and these people have systems and mechanisms to input, store and track trends over time.
In recent history, when we worked in markets with little change, the capacity to watch and assess the external environment for shifts was not a necessity. Today we live in a very different time. Now markets open and close within short intervals, and industries can completely change within several years. For this reason ‘trend watching’ – as a formal capacity that collects data about the future – is more important than ever.
